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by Barry Thompson

Sept 5 - Sept 14, 2008

What is the big news this week? More hurricanes in the gulf, oil drops in price on the international markets and our local gas prices skyrocket. I have some stories on new technologies, some comments on how our policies on new technologies are focusing in the wrong places. A review of the limits to growth analysis and some more info on the proposed hydro merger in Barrie.

Let's start with the hurricane. Hurricane Ike came ashore early Saturday morning and we are feeling the effects Sunday night. The Hurricane never got above category 2 and winds measured at ground level may not support that. However, like Gustav, the damage was not as bad as feared, but in this case it's still pretty bad. Millions without power and over ten refineries shut down. The following story takes a look at a best case scenario, all the refineries back up and operating in ten days. Even if this unlikely scenario happens the picture is not good, their conclusion is likely fuel shortages until mid-October. Just as in Canada, (I have attached story on Petro Canada stations out west still without gas) the just-in-time management philosophy seems particularly ill -suited to the energy business. While the Hurricanes did less damage than feared, the results are still bad--what if they had been catastrophic, how long would people be without gas or electricity? Anyway, this would explain the high rise in gasoline prices while little damage (not really confirmed but apparently expected) to the oil production infrastructure would leave excess oil until the refineries get back up. All in all, it appears Gustav and Ike will lead to a petroleum product shortage but not an oil shortage so expect to continue to pay high prices for gas while the US is having a shortage and looking for imports.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4526

http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2008/09/05/gas-shortage.html

On a related note, the last refinery should have come back online after Gustav related power outages this past week (refineries were out of commission between one and two weeks), just as others were being shut down for Ike.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0437420220080904?rpc=401&

Let's look at a few stories focusing on solutions. We will start with one on green diesel and the potential for algae to produce diesel fuel that actually reduces CO2 and could be sustainable.

http://discovermagazine.com/2008/aug/02-the-second-coming-of-biofuels

Here is one i really like from England--they are using food waste to generate power locally, something we should be insisting on instead of sending our food waste to open air composting sites.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/shropshire/7598156.stm

This next story looks at some of the environmental funding priorities for future technologies by the American government (which become our priorities very quickly it seems) and why they are wrong.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/reinsider/story?id=53467

These next few stories focus on some of the problems we face either through wrong policies or wrong analysis. This first one is from a former science advisor in England who believes it will be too expensive to get the UK up to twenty percent of total electricity being supplied by wind. Apparently, he must think nuclear and coal are cheaper.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7596214.stm

Now we have a story explaining the twisted logic behind why a car made by Ford, sold in Europe and that gets 65 mpg cannot be sold in America.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_37/b4099060491065.htm

Now just to show how our worldwide policies are ass backward, here is a story on world subsidies for fossil fuels of $300 billion.

http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/blogs/shapley/fossil-fuel-subsidies-55082701

Just to be sure we have some Canadian content, here is one of Mr Harpers announcements last week-- the conservatives will cut the diesel fuel tax. Is this a policy move for the future in a world facing climate change and a liquid fuel crisis?

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/ROC.20080909.2008-09-09T144501Z_01_OTW000124_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-POLITICS-TAX-COL/GIStory/

I have put a few stories up on the arctic situation before. Here is one documenting an ice free passage above both Russia and Canada.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/science/earth/07arctic.html?_r=2&ref=world&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

A story about the slow food movement that came from the slow food gathering in San Francisco recently. I really believe I am seeing a big change in people, the Barrie farmers market is really well attended this year and I notice No-Frills has a new program advertising which foods are locally grown. Now, the slow food movement incorporates more than just locally grown, but I am not surprised this is taking off.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080922/schlosser

Another story from the Barrie Examiner on the Hydro merger, most people seem opposed, typical concerns are uncertainty in benefits being to the projected level and loss of local control or even a local presence. A decision will be made shortly by council.

http://www.thebarrieexaminer.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1190500

For those of you who are really into reading up on the environment there was a book published in the early seventies called the Limits to Growth. It was put out by the Club of Rome and had some Canadian scientists as lead researchers. Anyway, thirty five years later there is a review on how things are turning out based on their conclusions from the original book.

http://ideas.repec.org/p/cse/wpaper/2008-09.html

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